Tue, Jan 14, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 4, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 17 | 210 | 12 | 419 |
| MTL | 111 | 013 | 06 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:00MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:23NJDJaromir JagrAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 1:20NJDEric GelinasPPGWGAssists: Ryane Clowe, Jon Merrill · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 4:02NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Ryane Clowe, Michael Ryder · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–1
- P3 19:46NJDDainius ZubrusENAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Backhand, 0.57 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:12MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:32NJDAndy Greene: Interference2 min
- P1 19:43MTLJosh Gorges: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:44NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:37NJDRyane Clowe: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:26MTLBrandon Prust: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Clowe – Henrique10:48
xG 1.13–0.28 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter10:03
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac10:32
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Sislo – Boucher2:26
xG 0.01–0.02 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene15:20
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Volchenkov – Merrill6:23
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Salvador – Volchenkov2:45
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Eller – Gallagher11:02
xG 0.86–0.50 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Brière – Prust – Bourque7:20
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brière – Parros – Bournival3:00
xG 0.02–0.01 (58%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec3:14
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Emelin13:41
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Murray – Diaz4:06
xG 0.01–0.02 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban2:04
xG 0.04–0.07 (34%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).