Wed, Jan 15, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 210 | 111 | 01 | 1 | 330 |
| TOR | 112 | 28 | 014 | 05 | 3 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:21TORPhil KesselUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:21BUFMatt EllisAssists: Tyler Myers, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 6:34BUFMatt MoulsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:23TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Peter Holland · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 11:22TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Mason Raymond · Snap, 0.30 xG2–3
- P3 0:43BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Christian Ehrhoff · Backhand, 0.30 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR James van Riemsdyk scored
- 2. BUF Matt Moulson scored
- 3. TOR Joffrey Lupul scored
- 4. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 5. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:39BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 0:35TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:56TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:53BUFSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:53TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- OT 2:33BUFBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLeino – Flynn – Girgensons7:52
xG 0.16–0.09 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott5:53
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Ott – Hodgson – Girgensons5:32
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ellis – Leino – Flynn3:01
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Myers14:47
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- McBain – McNabb12:32
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Ehrhoff – Myers3:46
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Kulemin – Holland12:02
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak16:37
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 21–12goals 1–1
- Orr – McClement – Ashton3:20
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Kadri13:50
xG 0.50–0.58 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly14:41
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Gleason – Franson16:52
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson15:37
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).