Thu, Jan 16, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Edmonton Oilers 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 17 | 05 | 121 |
| MIN | 17 | 215 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:36MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund, Marco Scandella · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:36EDMJordan EberleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:45MINNate ProsserGWGAssists: Jason Pominville · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 18:57MINJustin FontaineAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Matt Cooke · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 0:08MINJason ZuckerAssists: Dany Heatley, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:23EDMAnton Belov: Interference2 min
- P1 4:37MINMatt Cooke: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:49MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:49EDMDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 12:14MINStephane Veilleux: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:14EDMRyan Jones: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:05MINErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:58EDMDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P3 4:45MINKyle Brodziak: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:01EDMMartin Marincin: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:42MINErik Haula: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Gordon – Perron9:22
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Eberle – Arcobello – Yakupov6:17
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 1–2
- Smyth – Jones – Gazdic6:22
xG 0.01–0.26 (4%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Gagner – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:53
xG 0.32–0.76 (29%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Belov14:28
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Marincin13:30
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
- Ference – Schultz15:52
xG 0.10–1.31 (7%)attempts 5–26goals 0–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Fontaine11:34
xG 0.76–0.11 (87%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Heatley – Zucker – Coyle10:26
xG 0.43–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Pominville – Granlund – Niederreiter9:25
xG 0.24–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula5:11
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin17:23
xG 0.88–0.27 (76%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Scandella – Prosser16:23
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Ballard – Stoner9:28
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).