Sat, Jan 18, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 5, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 314 | 06 | 29 | 529 |
| NSH | 08 | 111 | 312 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:21COLNick HoldenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:27COLJan HejdaAssists: John Mitchell, Max Talbot · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 12:05COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Paul Stastny, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 14:36NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Mike Fisher, David Legwand · Tip-in, 0.31 xG3–1
- P3 2:31COLNick HoldenAssists: John Mitchell, Cody McLeod · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 6:31COLMatt DuchenePPGWGAssists: Nick Holden, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 8:14NSHCraig SmithAssists: Nick Spaling, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 12:45NSHRyan EllisUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 17:03NSHRoman JosiAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.04 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:49NSHEric Nystrom: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:49COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:40COLRyan Wilson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:01COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:01COLErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:01NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:01COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:51NSHRich Clune: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:46COLPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Fisher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:45
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 19–14goals 2–1
- Bordeleau – Cliche – Malone5:55
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McLeod9:45
xG 0.11–0.61 (16%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene13:10
xG 0.08–0.66 (11%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Holden13:52
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Wilson – Barrie11:32
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Hejda – Holden2:37
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Spaling – Smith13:13
xG 0.65–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Cullen – Nystrom – Bourque7:56
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
- Gaustad – Clune – Stalberg6:38
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson9:24
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi20:51
xG 0.97–0.17 (85%)attempts 26–9goals 2–0
- Bartley – Ellis12:44
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Ellis – Jones2:03
xG 0.02–0.05 (22%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).