Mon, Jan 20, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Los Angeles Kings 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 14 | 111 | 223 |
| BOS | 29 | 09 | 15 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07BOSBrad MarchandSHAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 17:51BOSTorey KrugPPAssists: David Krejci, Ryan Spooner · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:09LAKWillie MitchellAssists: Mike Richards · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 8:35LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 8:53BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:33BOSDavid Krejci: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:25BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:25LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:25BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:43LAKRobyn Regehr: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:29LAKWillie Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 12:28LAKRobyn Regehr: Holding2 min
- P2 19:18BOSMatt Bartkowski: Interference2 min
- P3 6:31BOSPatrice Bergeron: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:31LAKJarret Stoll: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:21BOSJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:15LAKJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Richards – Frattin8:04
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King9:04
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Fraser – Clifford – Nolan6:06
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Brown – Kopitar9:16
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez5:35
xG 0.78–0.30 (73%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Doughty10:08
xG 0.54–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Doughty4:10
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Paille8:11
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Spooner7:15
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic9:28
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith12:24
xG 0.54–0.74 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBartkowski – Trotman12:26
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller10:27
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Chara – Boychuk2:24
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).