Mon, Jan 20, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 214 | 16 | 19 | 429 |
| PHX | 012 | 015 | 214 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:17TORJake GardinerAssists: Nazem Kadri, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:19TORPhil KesselPPAssists: Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 5:10TORCarl GunnarssonGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Carter Ashton · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 5:35PHXMike RibeiroPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 14:10TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 14:59PHXAntoine VermetteSHAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:36PHXZbynek Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 1:31TORDion Phaneuf: Interference2 min
- P2 2:40PHXMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:15TORMorgan Rielly: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:11TORDion Phaneuf: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:53PHXJeff Halpern: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:11PHXAntoine Vermette: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:13TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P3 13:12PHXZbynek Michalek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:23PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Halpern won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak8:49
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Holland5:32
xG 0.14–0.41 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri11:50
xG 0.21–0.68 (23%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson11:33
xG 0.54–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Gleason – Franson13:42
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner2:46
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Kennedy – Klinkhammer3:25
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Chipchura – Szwarz6:02
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Vermette – Korpikoski – Boedker9:43
xG 0.67–0.54 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Vrbata6:08
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Stone8:41
xG 0.91–0.55 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Morris – Schlemko7:48
xG 0.18–0.04 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle7:23
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).