Tue, Jan 21, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 312 | 16 | 04 | 422 |
| BUF | 210 | 09 | 116 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Steve Ott, Linus Omark · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:06FLAJesse WinchesterAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 6:16BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 18:04FLASean BergenheimAssists: Tom Gilbert, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 18:56FLAEd JovanovskiUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 16:12FLANick BjugstadGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 8:36BUFSteve OttPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:56FLADmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:32BUFTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 3:29FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:01FLADmitry Kulikov: Holding2 min
- P3 6:59FLAJesse Winchester: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:47FLAEd Jovanovski: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:03BUFLinus Omark: Interference2 min
- P3 13:18FLABrad Boyes: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Flynn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Upshall – Bjugstad9:28
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Shore3:09
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Barch – Matthias – Shore2:51
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov4:15
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert17:16
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Weaver – Kulikov13:37
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson8:57
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Flynn – Girgensons12:56
xG 0.66–0.29 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Ott – Leino – Hodgson4:54
xG 0.35–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Ott – Omark – Hodgson5:50
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Moulson – Stafford – Ennis10:57
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – McNabb11:00
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Myers14:25
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Weber11:24
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).