Tue, Jan 21, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 0, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 03 | 06 | 09 | 018 |
| DAL | 212 | 116 | 18 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:18DALVernon FiddlerGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:45DALErik ColePPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Jamie Benn · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 13:18DALRay WhitneyPPAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 11:22DALJordie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 6:37DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:37MINStephane Veilleux: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:54MINTorrey Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:53MINJustin Fontaine: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P1 19:36MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P2 8:07DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:20MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:48MINMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:04MINNino Niederreiter: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 9:11DALJordie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:22MINDarcy Kuemper: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
- P3 14:01DALVernon Fiddler: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:01MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:01MINClayton Stoner: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:01DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:54MINTorrey Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:06DALSergei Gonchar: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Fontaine5:42
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Heatley – Pominville – Coyle2:00
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Heatley – Zucker – Coyle8:16
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula3:54
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Brodin15:31
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser8:53
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ballard – Stoner8:23
xG 0.10–0.56 (15%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Cole – Fiddler7:08
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin9:35
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Garbutt2:22
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Peverley – Chiasson6:54
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon12:55
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Rome10:18
xG 0.27–0.10 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Goligoski11:36
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).