Tue, Jan 21, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 29 | 215 | 17 | 531 |
| COL | 011 | 19 | 117 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56TORPhil KesselAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:41TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cody Franson, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 2:55TORJake GardinerGWGAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Troy Bodie · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 5:17TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 18:35COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: PA Parenteau, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 5:07COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Max Talbot · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 17:47TORJay McClementENAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Joffrey Lupul · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:21TORColton Orr: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:19TORMason Raymond: Holding2 min
- P1 17:28COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:54COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:04COLCody McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:38TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P3 10:31COLAndre Benoit: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:20TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:43
xG 1.30–0.97 (57%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri11:01
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Holland8:35
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Ashton3:08
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson13:33
xG 0.61–0.37 (62%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Gleason – Franson13:29
xG 0.82–0.76 (52%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Rielly14:22
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene13:39
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Parenteau – Bordeleau – Cliche3:46
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche4:25
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Stastny – Landeskog4:18
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Barrie5:01
xG 0.70–0.03 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Wilson – Barrie10:36
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Hejda – Wilson3:05
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).