Thu, Jan 23, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 18 | 312 | 533 |
| BUF | 112 | 111 | 16 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:15BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Steve Ott · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 12:28CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:20BUFBrian FlynnAssists: Phil Varone, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 13:11CARAlexander SeminAssists: Andrej Sekera, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 0:48BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford, Zenon Konopka · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 7:25CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 9:50CARAndrej SekeraGWGAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Mike Komisarek · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:59CARJiri TlustyENAssists: Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:19BUFSteve Ott: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:23CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:58CARRadek Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P3 1:36BUFZemgus Girgensons: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:36BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:36CARJay Harrison: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Ott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Skinner – Lindholm11:08
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Ruutu – Nash6:48
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Malhotra – Gerbe – Bowman7:05
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty12:44
xG 0.35–0.89 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Liles18:07
xG 0.74–0.63 (54%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Komisarek – Harrison10:18
xG 0.51–0.96 (35%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Sekera – Faulk16:19
xG 0.54–1.33 (29%)attempts 17–18goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Varone – Flynn6:10
xG 0.58–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Moulson – Stafford – Ennis10:04
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Ott – Hodgson – Girgensons13:05
xG 1.02–0.76 (57%)attempts 11–19goals 1–2
- Konopka – Ellis – Leino3:34
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer16:52
xG 1.47–0.97 (60%)attempts 16–20goals 2–1
- Tallinder – Myers13:26
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Weber – McBain14:45
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).