Thu, Jan 23, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 215 | 04 | 228 |
| CBJ | 114 | 217 | 28 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20CBJJack JohnsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 1:56PHIBrayden SchennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 7:21PHIVincent LecavalierPPAssists: Mark Streit, Andrej Meszaros · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 11:24CBJDerek MacKenzieAssists: Artem Anisimov, Corey Tropp · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 16:13CBJMatt CalvertPPGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Brandon Dubinsky · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 3:29CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Matt Calvert, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 6:54CBJNathan HortonAssists: Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:58PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:58PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:09CBJNathan Horton: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:07PHISteve Downie: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:47CBJRyan Johansen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:16PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:19CBJNathan Horton: Interference2 min
- P2 19:34CBJFedor Tyutin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:53PHIScott Hartnell: Boarding2 min
- P3 10:32CBJRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:11PHIAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P3 16:59CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:13PHIBraydon Coburn: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn8:55
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Read – Couturier – Raffl2:14
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Read – Couturier7:37
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl6:34
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Coburn – Grossmann3:51
xG 0.02–0.01 (57%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Streit – Grossmann9:34
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Schenn10:13
xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:07
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen9:29
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp5:06
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Horton – Anisimov – Jenner8:39
xG 0.40–0.64 (38%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson11:54
xG 0.74–0.09 (90%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Nikitin – Savard14:59
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Murray8:25
xG 0.42–0.98 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).