Fri, Jan 24, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 19 | 09 | 131 |
| DET | 18 | 213 | 15 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:27DETHenrik ZetterbergPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Niklas Kronwall · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 11:48DETRiley SheahanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 12:56MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 16:29DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:41DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:42DETHenrik Zetterberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:30MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:25MTLAlexei Emelin: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:15MTLBrandon Prust: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:19DETBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 7:22DETDanny DeKeyser: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:48MTLMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:40DETJustin Abdelkader: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:56MTLP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P3 5:41MTLP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:58MTLTravis Moen: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:58DETKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Brière
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Eller10:44
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Moen – Leblanc – Bournival5:16
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Prust – Bourque10:47
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher8:26
xG 0.08–0.46 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Beaulieu9:10
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Gorges – Subban2:34
xG 0.06–0.01 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Subban – Beaulieu3:50
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:36
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Cleary – Helm6:40
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco5:26
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Eaves – Miller – Glendening12:27
xG 0.29–0.74 (28%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson9:25
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Lashoff10:27
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Smith – DeKeyser2:11
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).