Fri, Jan 24, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 4, Calgary Flames 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 210 | 17 | 00 | 1 | 425 |
| CGY | 16 | 09 | 315 | 01 | 2 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51NSHEric NystromAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 3:23CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: Kris Russell, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:50NSHEric NystromAssists: Roman Josi, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–1
- P2 6:00NSHEric NystromAssists: Paul Gaustad, Victor Bartley · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 1:24CGYDavid JonesPPAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 10:47NSHEric NystromAssists: Matt Cullen, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 12:27CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Kris Russell, Lee Stempniak · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 13:36CGYDavid JonesAssists: TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CGY Joe Colborne stopped
- 2. NSH Matt Cullen stopped
- 3. CGY Jiri Hudler scored
- 4. NSH David Legwand stopped
- 5. CGY Lee Stempniak stopped
- 6. NSH Roman Josi scored
- 7. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 8. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:31NSHPaul Gaustad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:32NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:08CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P2 12:45CGYMikael Backlund: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:59NSHRich Clune: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:25NSHPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Nystrom – Bourque8:21
xG 0.83–0.62 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Legwand – Spaling – Smith9:45
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Clune – Stalberg5:52
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hornqvist – Wilson7:31
xG 0.08–0.31 (21%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Ellis10:19
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Jones13:52
xG 0.73–0.54 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi18:44
xG 0.86–0.85 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Stempniak – Backlund9:14
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma10:16
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Galiardi2:06
xG 0.05–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Westgarth – Byron4:37
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie15:25
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Russell – Brodie3:53
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Giordano – Butler3:05
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).