Sun, Jan 26, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 09 | 315 | 02 | 1 | 537 |
| DET | 010 | 312 | 15 | 03 | 0 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:48FLASean BergenheimAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mike Weaver · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 8:12DETGustav NyquistAssists: Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 9:31DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Brendan Smith, Brian Lashoff · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–2
- P2 18:15DETRiley SheahanPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Patrick Eaves · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 9:12FLAJesse WinchesterAssists: Tom Gilbert, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–3
- P3 13:33DETTomas TatarAssists: Riley Sheahan, Tomas Jurco · Snap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 14:28FLADrew ShoreAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Tom Gilbert · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 16:14FLABrad BoyesSHAssists: Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. DET Tomas Tatar stopped
- 2. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
- 3. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 5. DET Patrick Eaves stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:55FLAMarcel Goc: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:47DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:48DETJonathan Ericsson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:30FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24FLASean Bergenheim: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 0:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
- P3 6:21DETJustin Abdelkader: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:46FLAMarcel Goc: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Helm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Hayes – Shore7:59
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Gomez – Boyes – Bergenheim10:17
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Upshall – Matthias – Bjugstad9:53
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Goc – Winchester – Huberdeau11:16
xG 0.79–0.88 (47%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gilbert18:21
xG 1.16–0.50 (70%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Jovanovski – Olsen9:20
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 5–11goals 1–2
- Weaver – Kulikov13:32
xG 0.34–0.81 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Cleary – Helm11:11
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco8:07
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Eaves – Miller – Glendening8:39
xG 0.01–0.25 (3%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Franzen – Abdelkader – Nyquist9:48
xG 0.28–0.99 (22%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson14:38
xG 0.45–0.25 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser10:40
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Smith – Lashoff12:17
xG 0.69–0.80 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).