Tue, Jan 28, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 19 | 18 | 328 |
| CBJ | 013 | 113 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:06OTTStephane Da CostaPPAssists: Milan Michalek, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:24OTTStephane Da CostaAssists: Jason Spezza, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 12:00CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Matt Calvert, James Wisniewski · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 7:16CBJJames WisniewskiPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 15:02OTTJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Colin Greening, Marc Methot · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:52CBJMatt Calvert: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:53OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P1 18:53OTTEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:02OTTJason Spezza: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:15CBJArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:27CBJJack Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:27OTTChris Neil: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:57CBJNikita Nikitin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:57OTTMika Zibanejad: Diving2 min
- P3 3:36CBJCody Goloubef: Interference2 min
- P3 6:51OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:47OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:08CBJNathan Horton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Condra – Conacher – Da Costa4:19
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris10:24
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad9:51
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:45
xG 0.07–0.43 (14%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci7:26
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson2:26
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Gryba – Cowen3:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHorton – Anisimov – Jenner8:38
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Dubinsky – Atkinson3:22
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen10:19
xG 0.46–0.29 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Comeau – Letestu – Calvert2:00
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Murray3:42
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Goloubef8:57
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson13:15
xG 0.42–0.27 (61%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).