Tue, Jan 28, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Calgary Flames 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 210 | 214 | 09 | 00 | 433 |
| CGY | 28 | 210 | 07 | 14 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 5:43CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Kris Versteeg, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:34CGYLance BoumaAssists: Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P1 16:35CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 3:21CGYMatt StajanAssists: David Jones · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 10:25CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Lee Stempniak, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–4
- P2 13:12CHIBen SmithAssists: Brandon Bollig, Johnny Oduya · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P2 17:33CHIMarian HossaSHAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- OT 2:26CGYTJ BrodieGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, Lee Stempniak · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:42CGYBen Street: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:58CHIJohnny Oduya: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:46CHIKris Versteeg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews12:07
xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Sharp – Toews – Kane3:04
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig8:46
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Versteeg – Kane – Pirri12:04
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Leddy15:11
xG 0.79–0.24 (77%)attempts 19–6goals 1–1
- Keith – Seabrook15:42
xG 1.06–0.80 (57%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Keith2:11
xG 0.02–0.06 (25%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMcGrattan – Westgarth – Street6:57
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Galiardi – Colborne – Monahan11:23
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma11:53
xG 0.53–0.73 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 2–2
- Hudler – Stempniak – Backlund15:00
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Smid12:31
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Russell – Butler16:46
xG 0.58–0.38 (60%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:49
xG 0.43–1.14 (28%)attempts 9–20goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).