Tue, Jan 28, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 111 | 211 | 433 |
| ANA | 111 | 04 | 118 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:13ANADustin PennerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 0:13MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 6:35MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Marco Scandella, Nate Prosser · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 8:21MINErik HaulaAssists: Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella · Tip-in, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 10:53ANAMathieu PerreaultPPAssists: Teemu Selanne · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:38ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:51ANALuca Sbisa: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:32ANADustin Penner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:34MINMike Rupp: Holding2 min
- P2 12:51ANABryan Allen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00MINCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00ANABen Lovejoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:07MINMike Rupp: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:07MINMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:09ANAMathieu Perreault: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Fontaine10:18
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Heatley – Pominville – Granlund8:52
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Rupp – Mitchell – Haula5:07
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Niederreiter8:25
xG 0.18–0.47 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Prosser11:01
xG 0.75–0.27 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Ballard – Stoner6:56
xG 0.03–0.36 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin14:19
xG 0.47–1.16 (29%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Penner10:41
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Selanne – Perreault – Maroon10:06
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Silfverberg7:22
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Koivu – Cogliano – Palmieri8:41
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler11:16
xG 1.14–0.34 (77%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Allen – Lindholm7:42
xG 0.34–0.05 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm3:25
xG 0.41–0.35 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).