Thu, Jan 30, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 4, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 011 | 317 | 435 |
| COL | 110 | 318 | 14 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Matt Duchene, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:16MINZach ParisePPAssists: Dany Heatley, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 1:43COLJohn MitchellAssists: Nate Guenin, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 9:17COLPaul StastnyAssists: Erik Johnson, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
- P2 15:26COLMax TalbotAssists: John Mitchell, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
- P3 7:47MINZach PariseAssists: Jason Pominville, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 12:51MINMikael GranlundAssists: Zach Parise, Keith Ballard · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–4
- P3 17:35COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Andre Benoit, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–5
- P3 17:46MINJason PominvilleAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:40MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:40COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:50COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:09MINErik Haula: Interference2 min
- P1 13:37MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:47MINClayton Stoner: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:15COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:48MINTorrey Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P3 2:54COLJamie McGinn: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:54MINNate Prosser: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:53COLMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:49MINMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:49MINKyle Brodziak: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:49MINMatt Cooke: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:49COLNate Guenin: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:49COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:49COLNate Guenin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Mitchell – Haula3:09
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Niederreiter3:49
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund2:43
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Fontaine3:50
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Ballard – Stoner5:47
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Scandella – Prosser7:32
xG 0.11–0.28 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Suter – Brodin11:29
xG 0.25–2.19 (10%)attempts 6–23goals 0–3
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene8:15
xG 1.48–0.16 (90%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – MacKinnon7:34
xG 0.99–0.29 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Tanguay – Stastny – Landeskog5:36
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche3:13
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson10:43
xG 1.30–0.40 (77%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Guenin – Benoit6:09
xG 0.63–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Holden – Barrie5:41
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).