Thu, Jan 30, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 013 | 17 | 128 |
| CGY | 112 | 18 | 210 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:41CGYLee StempniakAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dennis Wideman · Backhand, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 3:38CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 0:36SJSEriah HayesAssists: Patrick Marleau, Tommy Wingels · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 13:00CGYSean MonahanAssists: Joe Colborne, Ladislav Smid · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 18:14CGYJiri HudlerENAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.63 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:53SJSJoe Pavelski: Holding2 min
- P2 5:59CGYTJ Brodie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:35SJSTommy Wingels: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – McCarthy – Hayes5:42
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kearns – Sheppard – McCarthy2:46
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Wingels – Hayes4:29
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Kearns – Nieto7:30
xG 0.05–0.09 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Braun10:08
xG 0.06–0.15 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers10:16
xG 0.51–0.91 (36%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
- Boyle – Irwin13:27
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaliardi – Colborne – Monahan12:21
xG 0.82–0.13 (86%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Hudler – Stempniak – Backlund12:14
xG 0.80–0.17 (83%)attempts 19–5goals 2–1
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma13:28
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Street5:21
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Smid12:43
xG 0.94–0.06 (94%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Russell – Butler13:14
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie19:12
xG 0.49–0.73 (40%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).