Thu, Jan 30, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Buffalo Sabres 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 111 | 15 | 328 |
| PHX | 221 | 010 | 09 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson, Zemgus Girgensons · Snap, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 18:30PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.32 xG1–1
- P1 18:48PHXDavid MossAssists: Jeff Halpern, Zbynek Michalek · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 6:38BUFSteve OttPPAssists: Ville Leino, Alexander Sulzer · Snap, 0.42 xG2–2
- P3 1:52BUFZemgus GirgensonsSHGWGUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:52BUFCody Hodgson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:40PHXPaul Bissonnette: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:25BUFCody Hodgson: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:30BUFCody Hodgson: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:29PHXRadim Vrbata: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:29BUFSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:29PHXMartin Hanzal: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Foligno – Varone9:40
xG 0.79–0.07 (92%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons10:37
xG 1.01–0.77 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Konopka – D'Agostini – Foligno2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Flynn3:40
xG 0.01–0.05 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSulzer – McBain17:13
xG 0.67–0.40 (63%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Weber – Myers15:49
xG 1.08–0.88 (55%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Tallinder – Ruhwedel11:15
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy8:17
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura4:26
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Chipchura2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – Moss6:46
xG 0.16–0.38 (30%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Murphy10:38
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle17:00
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson17:05
xG 0.90–1.67 (35%)attempts 18–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).