Sat, Feb 1, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 010 | 19 | 016 | 11 | 236 |
| MTL | 06 | 010 | 18 | 05 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:58TBLNate ThompsonSHAssists: Victor Hedman, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 7:25MTLDaniel BrièreAssists: Brian Gionta · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 4:36TBLNate ThompsonGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:27TBLJean-Philippe Cote: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:27MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:41MTLNathan Beaulieu: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 11:31MTLGeorge Parros: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:31TBLRadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:08TBLOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:35MTLGeorge Parros: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:40TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 17:02MTLBrandon Prust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:02TBLBen Bishop: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 17:02MTLCarey Price: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 17:02MTLGeorge Parros: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:02TBLRadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:33TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:50MTLNathan Beaulieu: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 18:55TBLEric Brewer: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestSt. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:11
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Purcell – Killorn – Kucherov9:55
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Thompson – Pyatt – Brown7:07
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarberio – Hedman3:15
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas8:51
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Brewer – Barberio9:23
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:21
xG 0.33–0.24 (57%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Thomas2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Prust – Bourque – Eller2:56
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque3:51
xG 0.02–0.06 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Subban14:04
xG 0.38–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Murray – Beaulieu10:05
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Markov – Emelin14:12
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).