Sat, Feb 1, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 17 | 213 | 03 | 1 | 331 |
| STL | 114 | 18 | 19 | 03 | 2 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Chris Stewart, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 3:31STLDavid BackesAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Derek Roy · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 16:48NSHPaul GaustadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 3:25NSHMike FisherAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Eric Nystrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 7:33NSHRoman JosiAssists: David Legwand, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:49STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brian Elliott · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 2. NSH Taylor Beck stopped
- 3. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 4. NSH Ryan Ellis scored
- 5. STL Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 6. NSH Roman Josi stopped
- 7. STL Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 8. NSH Mattias Ekholm stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:02NSHShea Weber: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:48NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:24NSHSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26STLChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Clune – Sissons6:28
xG 0.98–0.20 (83%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Hornqvist13:29
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Legwand – Smith – Bourque12:13
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Wilson – Beck – Moser9:35
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi20:11
xG 1.60–0.72 (69%)attempts 28–16goals 3–0
- Del Zotto – Jones14:13
xG 0.53–0.79 (40%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm13:22
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:52
xG 1.01–0.35 (74%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Oshie – Berglund – Paajarvi10:54
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Steen – Backes – Stewart11:44
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Morrow – Lapierre – Reaves8:31
xG 0.14–1.05 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:10
xG 1.06–0.79 (57%)attempts 20–21goals 2–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk15:24
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Polak – Cole12:54
xG 0.57–0.84 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).