Mon, Feb 3, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 111 | 15 | 328 |
| BUF | 213 | 018 | 013 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32EDMJeff PetryAssists: Nail Yakupov, David Perron · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:04BUFSteve OttPPAssists: Tyler Myers, Cody Hodgson · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 19:04BUFDrew StaffordSHAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Mike Weber · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 16:45EDMJustin SchultzAssists: David Perron, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 0:57EDMMatt HendricksSHGWGAssists: Boyd Gordon, Martin Marincin · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:41BUFDrew Stafford: Interference2 min
- P1 6:56EDMTaylor Hall: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 15:24BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:10BUFSteve Ott: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:23EDMMatt Hendricks: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:30BUFTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 7:51EDMAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:22EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:50EDMNail Yakupov: Interference2 min
- P2 14:50BUFSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:50EDMAndrew Ference: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:43EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:28BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Hemsky – Gordon5:45
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins4:03
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Perron – Yakupov4:16
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Hall – Nugent-Hopkins – Yakupov3:20
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Fraser9:18
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Petry – Marincin11:58
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz11:57
xG 0.35–0.87 (29%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Scott – Foligno2:33
xG 0.57–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Omark – Ennis12:17
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Varone – Flynn – Girgensons6:02
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Hodgson10:49
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Sulzer7:11
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Weber – McBain8:50
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Myers6:29
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).