Mon, Feb 3, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 08 | 09 | 00 | 125 |
| PIT | 113 | 016 | 015 | 14 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:05OTTStephane Da CostaAssists: Cory Conacher, Erik Condra · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:23PITBrian GibbonsPPAssists: Olli Maatta, Jussi Jokinen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 1:55PITJames NealGWGAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:33OTTZack Smith: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:54PITRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:54OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:43OTTEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:43PITJames Neal: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:00OTTChris Neil: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:33PITMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:18OTTKyle Turris: Interference2 min
- P3 9:27PITTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:27OTTKyle Turris: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:41PITJussi Jokinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Ryan – Turris7:33
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Condra – Conacher – Da Costa7:40
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Zibanejad10:26
xG 0.47–0.38 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith8:59
xG 0.09–0.73 (11%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Wiercioch – Ceci9:40
xG 0.15–0.48 (23%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Methot – Gryba14:58
xG 0.31–0.74 (29%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cowen18:58
xG 0.68–1.31 (34%)attempts 21–20goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Crosby – Gibbons7:14
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Neal9:19
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Glass – Sutter5:01
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Kunitz – Crosby2:11
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Bortuzzo8:24
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Orpik2:27
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Maatta10:11
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).