Mon, Feb 3, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 2, New Jersey Devils 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 09 | 19 | 11 | 225 |
| NJD | 111 | 09 | 08 | 00 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:25NJDRyan CarterAssists: Steve Bernier, Stephen Gionta · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 18:13COLPA ParenteauAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 0:28COLRyan O'ReillyPPGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:50COLGabriel Landeskog: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:08COLMax Talbot: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:34NJDPeter Harrold: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:47COLPatrick Bordeleau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:16NJDSteve Bernier: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:12NJDSteve Bernier: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:04NJDJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:30COLJohn Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P3 19:18NJDAndy Greene: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Talbot – McLeod2:46
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon2:15
xG 0.10–0.04 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Landeskog – MacKinnon8:20
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Landeskog – MacKinnon2:56
xG 0.07–0.15 (32%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Holden – Barrie12:40
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Guenin – Benoit6:34
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson12:58
xG 0.25–0.52 (33%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Zajac9:15
xG 0.84–0.12 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter6:01
xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique10:32
xG 0.16–0.15 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Elias – Loktionov – Brunner6:41
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene15:47
xG 1.10–0.12 (90%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Harrold – Merrill11:23
xG 0.37–0.15 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky8:30
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).