Tue, Feb 4, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 011 | 011 | 113 | 135 |
| MIN | 18 | 014 | 14 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:04MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.50 xG0–1
- P3 0:34MINDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P3 13:53TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Martin St. Louis, Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:55TBLRadko Gudas: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:27MINStephane Veilleux: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:51TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:58MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:58TBLB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:14MINMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown2:35
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat10:46
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson7:25
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Kucherov – Brown2:51
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman9:06
xG 0.50–0.12 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Aulie – Hedman2:02
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Barberio9:48
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund13:25
xG 0.49–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Heatley – Zucker – Coyle10:41
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Veilleux – Mitchell – Haula6:55
xG 0.01–0.17 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter10:52
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon13:02
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Prosser – Brodin5:19
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ballard – Brodin7:05
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).