Thu, Feb 6, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Calgary Flames 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 26 | 211 | 422 |
| NYI | 011 | 111 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:15CGYSean MonahanAssists: Joe Colborne, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 18:08CGYDennis WidemanPPAssists: Mikael Backlund, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 19:53NYIThomas HickeyAssists: Josh Bailey, Colin McDonald · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 7:31NYICalvin de HaanAssists: John Tavares, Thomas Vanek · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 14:28CGYDavid JonesGWGAssists: Matt Stajan, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:57CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Jiri Hudler, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:44CGYMatt Stajan: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:23CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P2 8:06CGYJoe Colborne: Interference2 min
- P2 17:01NYIThomas Hickey: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 3:12CGYLadislav Smid: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:33NYILubomir Visnovsky: Holding2 min
- P3 16:51CGYJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Galiardi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Stempniak – Backlund11:20
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Colborne – Monahan10:24
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Stajan – Jones – Bouma10:32
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Galiardi – Byron6:06
xG 0.20–0.69 (23%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell3:38
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Smid – Butler3:34
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Wideman – Smid10:24
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares14:41
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- McDonald – Bailey – Nelson6:38
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas6:26
xG 0.40–0.46 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner6:05
xG 0.23–0.33 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDonovan – de Haan15:00
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:42
xG 0.87–0.66 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
- Strait – MacDonald14:20
xG 0.57–0.51 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).