Thu, Feb 6, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 2, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 115 | 117 | 244 |
| MTL | 29 | 08 | 312 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:59MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 16:02MTLRyan WhiteAssists: Michael Bournival, Dale Weise · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 2:31VANChris HigginsPPAssists: Jason Garrison, Jordan Schroeder · Tip-in, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 4:45MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: David Desharnais, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 8:14MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: David Desharnais · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 12:21VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Raphael Diaz, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:52MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:52VANRyan Kesler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:46MTLTomas Plekanec: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:47MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:53MTLBrandon Prust: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:47VANRaphael Diaz: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 13:38VANAlexandre Burrows: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:55MTLDavid Desharnais: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:24MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Burrows – Schroeder10:43
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen11:43
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Booth – Kassian12:59
xG 0.72–0.65 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
- Pelletier – Sestito – Dalpe6:28
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Stanton15:47
xG 0.96–0.41 (70%)attempts 21–13goals 0–0
- Stanton – Corrado3:57
xG 0.15–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Edler – Diaz15:48
xG 0.50–0.63 (44%)attempts 22–13goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:52
xG 0.74–0.23 (77%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Bourque – Eller – Weise2:56
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Gionta – Plekanec11:09
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- White – Weise – Bournival4:13
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Beaulieu2:18
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Murray – Beaulieu8:11
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Murray – Gorges2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).