Thu, Feb 6, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 013 | 212 | 232 |
| OTT | 011 | 113 | 212 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:12OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Stephane Da Costa, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 0:10OTTMilan MichalekAssists: Jason Spezza, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 10:25BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Drew Stafford, Ville Leino · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 15:46BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Christian Ehrhoff · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- P3 19:37OTTMilan MichalekGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Chris Neil · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:49BUFMatt D'Agostini: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:33OTTChris Neil: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:53OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P2 5:38BUFPhil Varone: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:55OTTKyle Turris: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:22BUFJohn Scott: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:13OTTMilan Michalek: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:11OTTBobby Ryan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:54OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:44OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Leino – Ennis11:24
xG 1.65–0.52 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott4:27
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Varone – Flynn – Girgensons8:28
xG 0.36–0.40 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Hodgson8:16
xG 0.16–0.99 (14%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Tallinder – McBain12:46
xG 0.95–0.96 (50%)attempts 9–19goals 1–2
- Sulzer – Weber3:42
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Weber – Ruhwedel8:23
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Michalek – Zibanejad7:49
xG 1.24–0.90 (58%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:25
xG 0.84–0.53 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Condra – Conacher – Da Costa5:08
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Ryan – Turris9:20
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Cowen15:31
xG 1.90–0.62 (75%)attempts 25–10goals 2–1
- Methot – Gryba12:34
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci9:57
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).