Sat, Feb 8, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 2, Boston Bruins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 114 | 18 | 228 |
| BOS | 211 | 216 | 315 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:36BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 16:26BOSChris KellyAssists: David Warsofsky, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 4:55BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Dougie Hamilton · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 17:15OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 18:18BOSJarome IginlaAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 3:35BOSMilan LucicAssists: Jarome Iginla, David Krejci · Snap, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 8:26BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Reilly Smith, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–6
- P3 15:05OTTPatrick WierciochPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–6
- P3 16:53BOSCarl SoderbergAssists: Reilly Smith, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:26OTTErik Condra: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:18BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:18OTTZack Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:44BOSChris Kelly: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:56OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:42BOSChris Kelly: Holding2 min
- P2 11:15OTTCory Conacher: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:57OTTCory Conacher: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:06BOSGregory Campbell: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Smith6:06
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Michalek – Greening4:33
xG 0.04–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Neil – Kassian – Smith2:48
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Condra – Turris5:00
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Gryba12:51
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci3:23
xG 0.25–0.24 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch2:04
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith12:00
xG 0.90–0.40 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic10:48
xG 0.70–0.25 (74%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg8:04
xG 0.34–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Marchand2:28
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Krug12:43
xG 1.10–0.29 (79%)attempts 20–7goals 2–0
- Bartkowski – Hamilton13:45
xG 0.83–0.46 (64%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Warsofsky – Miller13:54
xG 0.60–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).