Sat, Feb 8, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 114 | 112 | 07 | 233 |
| TBL | 010 | 211 | 27 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:18DETDaniel AlfredssonAssists: Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:44TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P2 11:19DETTomas JurcoAssists: Riley Sheahan, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 17:14TBLTom PyattAssists: Sami Salo, JT Brown · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 16:49TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Teddy Purcell, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:57TBLOndrej PalatENAssists: Tyler Johnson, Sami Salo · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:54DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:09DETTomas Jurco: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:00TBLNate Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:10TBLMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:55TBLTeddy Purcell: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:24DETBrian Lashoff: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist14:49
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco11:39
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening8:10
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Helm11:29
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser17:34
xG 0.66–0.19 (77%)attempts 25–11goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:53
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–2
- Kronwall – Smith2:33
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Namestnikov – Brown9:48
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Johnson – Palat11:04
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Purcell – Killorn7:33
xG 0.30–0.30 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Malone – Crombeen – Thompson8:34
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman10:35
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hedman – Gudas2:33
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Barberio – Hedman2:20
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).