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Ice Lab

Thu, Feb 27, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh

Montréal Canadiens 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (SO)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

6

Final

Shootout

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.

PIT winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
MTL192728051629
PIT21211228000532

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:57MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
  2. P1 8:23PITJames NealAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:48PITDeryk EngellandAssists: James Neal, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 6:17MTLDaniel BrièreAssists: Josh Gorges, George Parros · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
  5. P2 10:38PITOlli MaattaPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brandon Sutter · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
  6. P2 11:35MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: David Desharnais, Andrei Markov · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P3 7:16PITBrandon SutterSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
  8. P3 7:40MTLAlexei EmelinAssists: Rene Bourque, Daniel Brière · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
  9. P3 12:29PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
  10. P3 14:06MTLDaniel BrièrePPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT James Neal stopped
  2. 2. MTL Lars Eller stopped
  3. 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
  4. 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
  5. 5. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 19:45MTLRene Bourque: Holding2 min
  2. P2 8:41MTLLars Eller: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 10:47PITJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 16:27MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
  5. P3 0:44MTLDouglas Murray: Interference2 min
  6. P3 5:38PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 8:14PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 8:14MTLDouglas Murray: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 11:17MTLAlexei Emelin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  10. P3 12:48PITTanner Glass: Elbowing5 min · PPG
  11. P3 12:48PITTanner Glass: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
48% to win52% to win
← MTL attackPIT attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLPIT
29Shots on goal32
2.3Expected goals2.3
52Shot attempts55
34Faceoffs won32
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes21
18Hits20
14Blocked shots12
2Giveaways6
1Takeaways4

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Montréal Canadiens

Forward lines

  1. bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher11:30

    xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0

  2. Brière – Parros – Moen5:15

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0

  3. Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk9:13

    xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1

  4. Bourque – Eller – Weise8:11

    xG 0.03–0.13 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMarkov – Emelin13:43

    xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0

  2. Markov – Subban2:01

    xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  3. Murray – Tinordi10:02

    xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. Kunitz – Crosby – Gibbons8:44

    xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0

  2. Jokinen – Malkin – Neal9:12

    xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0

  3. Adams – Pyatt – Vitale6:59

    xG 0.05–0.21 (19%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1

  4. Kobasew – Glass – Sutter5:42

    xG 0.12–0.41 (22%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestNiskanen – Maatta13:38

    xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0

  2. Scuderi – Bortuzzo9:41

    xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1

  3. Orpik – Engelland11:20

    xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.3 xGMTL 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #7 of 1230 this seasonSwing 3.39 · 10 goals in reachComeback index 16% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +38 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.

PIT winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).