Thu, Feb 27, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 5, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 211 | 213 | 18 | 532 |
| FLA | 19 | 112 | 213 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Brooks Laich, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:10WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 15:27FLATomas FleischmannAssists: Jesse Winchester, Marcel Goc · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 0:40FLABrad BoyesAssists: Sean Bergenheim · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 3:44WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Martin Erat, John Carlson · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 19:13WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.37 xG4–2
- P3 8:01FLADrew ShorePPAssists: Brian Campbell, Ed Jovanovski · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 9:23FLABrad BoyesAssists: Sean Bergenheim, Nick Bjugstad · Slap, 0.36 xG4–4
- P3 15:43WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Brooks Laich, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:56FLATomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:00WSHMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:51WSHEric Fehr: Holding2 min
- P2 18:45FLAEd Jovanovski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:19WSHBraden Holtby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 10:15WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:18WSHMike Green: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:06WSHJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grabovski won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:56
xG 0.52–0.07 (88%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Beagle – Deschamps – Wilson5:30
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr8:41
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Fehr – Brouwer2:07
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov16:49
xG 0.82–0.48 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Alzner – Carlson15:31
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Erskine – Carrick11:28
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad13:06
xG 1.00–0.48 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Upshall – Shore – Huberdeau10:09
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Goc – Fleischmann – Winchester13:10
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Barch – Matthias – Hayes6:34
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Kulikov14:47
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Campbell – Gilbert15:24
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson11:01
xG 0.70–0.83 (46%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).