Sun, Mar 2, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
St. Louis Blues 4, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 07 | 411 | 430 |
| PHX | 112 | 18 | 05 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56PHXPaul BissonnetteAssists: Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 7:09PHXJeff HalpernAssists: Keith Yandle, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 3:18STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 7:39STLMagnus PaajarviAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 12:46STLKevin ShattenkirkPPGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:21STLPatrik BerglundUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:09PHXMike Ribeiro: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:28STLBarret Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:41PHXRob Klinkhammer: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:02PHXJeff Halpern: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:54STLKevin Shattenkirk: Interference2 min
- P3 19:32STLT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz3:43
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0
- Berglund – Paajarvi – Tarasenko7:58
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie4:52
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Schwartz8:52
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:07
xG 1.47–0.14 (91%)attempts 22–13goals 3–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk8:45
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Colaiacovo – Polak9:25
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Bissonnette – Chipchura3:31
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 2–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Klinkhammer10:41
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Korpikoski7:47
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker13:12
xG 0.18–1.01 (15%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Stone12:09
xG 0.29–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson16:33
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Morris – Yandle18:13
xG 0.38–1.76 (18%)attempts 18–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).