Tue, Mar 4, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 17 | 05 | 12 | 327 |
| WPG | 19 | 017 | 111 | 01 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:57WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 17:30NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Ryan Strome, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 1:33NYIAnders LeeAssists: Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.35 xG2–1
- P3 14:53WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 3:53NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Snap, 0.33 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:31NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:31WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:07NYIEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:07NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:07WPGMark Stuart: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:30NYIRyan Strome: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:18NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:18NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:29WPGToby Enstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:59NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:59WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04NYIAnders Nilsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Lee – Strome8:49
xG 1.07–0.18 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Nelson8:09
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner11:07
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas2:10
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan15:55
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Strait – Hickey2:07
xG 0.42–0.04 (92%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Carkner – Strait7:06
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little6:11
xG 0.31–0.06 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Slater – Setoguchi – Frolik4:10
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Setoguchi – Scheifele5:14
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Ladd – Little – Frolik7:17
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian13:23
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Pardy – Ellerby5:08
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba8:14
xG 0.13–0.14 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).