Wed, Mar 5, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 08 | 114 | 131 |
| CGY | 18 | 210 | 110 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04CGYMarkus GranlundAssists: Max Reinhart · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 9:12CGYPaul ByronPPGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, Kris Russell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 17:13CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 10:24OTTKyle TurrisAssists: Colin Greening, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 11:22CGYMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 4:22OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:58CGYLadislav Smid: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:59OTTMike Hoffman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:01CGYBen Hanowski: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:02CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:14OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:05CGYKris Russell: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:05OTTBobby Ryan: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:03OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P3 0:19CGYChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:19CGYChris Butler: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:19CGYPaul Byron: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:19OTTErik Condra: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:19OTTClarke MacArthur: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:41CGYJoe Colborne: Holding2 min
- P3 5:07OTTJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:10OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:03OTTColin Greening: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Hoffman – Zibanejad4:58
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek10:38
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith8:11
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Wiercioch7:40
xG 0.82–0.15 (85%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Methot – Karlsson12:59
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci11:46
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Bouma3:20
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Hudler – Bouma – Monahan4:55
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Hanowski – Knight6:44
xG 0.06–0.16 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Byron – Reinhart – Granlund6:58
xG 0.04–0.22 (14%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Butler2:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Smid – Brodie2:36
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Smid – Butler2:12
xG 0.01–0.06 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).