Thu, Mar 6, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Los Angeles Kings 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 210 | 120 | 341 |
| WPG | 07 | 16 | 05 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:03WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Evander Kane, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 12:45LAKDustin BrownAssists: Jarret Stoll, Slava Voynov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 16:15LAKMike RichardsGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 15:51LAKAlec MartinezPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:33WPGAndrew Ladd: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:21WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:58LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:15WPGDevin Setoguchi: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:56WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frolik won the faceoff against Stoll
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Brown – King12:23
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Toffoli10:43
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Williams – Kopitar9:39
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Nolan7:13
xG 0.15–0.41 (26%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Voynov14:52
xG 1.44–0.03 (98%)attempts 23–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty12:35
xG 0.84–0.64 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Mitchell – Martinez10:22
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wheeler – Kane4:00
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Slater – Tangradi – Peluso3:52
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Setoguchi – Frolik – Halischuk9:22
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little10:35
xG 0.23–0.50 (32%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Ellerby10:37
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian8:54
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba9:48
xG 0.15–0.60 (20%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).