Fri, Mar 7, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 28 | 07 | 326 |
| CGY | 16 | 08 | 39 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01CGYMarkus GranlundSHAssists: Paul Byron, Joni Ortio · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 15:26NYIColin McDonaldAssists: Ryan Strome, Thomas Hickey · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:31NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 12:08NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Matt Donovan · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:29CGYJoe ColborneAssists: Mark Giordano, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 14:22CGYSean MonahanAssists: TJ Galiardi, Lance Bouma · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 15:41CGYJoe ColborneGWGAssists: Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:02CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:17CGYLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:49NYIMatt Donovan: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:57NYIMatt Donovan: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:57CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:57CGYLance Bouma: Kneeing2 min
- P3 1:52CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYIKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Halmo11:25
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Nelson8:21
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Okposo – Bailey – Nelson2:49
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McDonald – Lee – Strome8:29
xG 0.34–0.37 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan15:43
xG 0.49–0.03 (95%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hamonic2:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey13:43
xG 0.31–0.37 (45%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Galiardi – Backlund2:00
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Colborne6:41
xG 0.62–0.37 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Galiardi – Bouma – Monahan4:13
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Bouma7:16
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie16:00
xG 1.01–0.41 (71%)attempts 19–6goals 2–1
- Smid – Wotherspoon10:29
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Russell – Brodie2:43
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).