Sat, Mar 8, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Boston Bruins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 210 | 113 | 04 | 1 | 432 |
| TBL | 07 | 37 | 04 | 02 | 0 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:27TBLOndrej PalatSHAssists: Tyler Johnson, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 4:13TBLMark BarberioAssists: Tom Pyatt, Ryan Callahan · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:58BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Gregory Campbell, Johnny Boychuk · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:29BOSCarl SoderbergAssists: Chris Kelly · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 9:31TBLValtteri FilppulaAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 8:11BOSJohnny BoychukAssists: Carl Soderberg, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Valtteri Filppula stopped
- 2. BOS Patrice Bergeron stopped
- 3. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 4. BOS Loui Eriksson stopped
- 5. TBL Ondrej Palat stopped
- 6. BOS Carl Soderberg stopped
- 7. TBL Ryan Callahan stopped
- 8. BOS Brad Marchand stopped
- 9. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
- 10. BOS Jarome Iginla stopped
- 11. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 12. BOS David Krejci stopped
- 13. TBL Richard Panik stopped
- 14. BOS Reilly Smith scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:38TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:59TBLKeith Aulie: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:59BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:49BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:33TBLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:18TBLTeddy Purcell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:18
xG 0.36–0.08 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith11:52
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille6:35
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic12:43
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug12:23
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski14:59
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 3–1
- Chara – Miller3:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Callahan – Pyatt2:48
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Purcell – Killorn – Stamkos12:40
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Thompson – Pyatt – Stamkos3:07
xG 0.06–0.01 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Panik – Brown9:50
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman8:35
xG 0.26–0.05 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Carle – Barberio3:00
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Carle – Kostka8:08
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).