Sun, Mar 9, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 26 | 03 | 010 | 03 | 2 | 322 |
| MIN | 05 | 27 | 06 | 01 | 0 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37STLT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P1 8:30STLCarlo ColaiacovoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 3:11MINJason PominvilleAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 7:03MINMatt MoulsonAssists: Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. STL T.J. Oshie scored
- 3. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 4. STL Alexander Steen scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:00MINKyle Brodziak: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:00STLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:47MINJason Pominville: Interference2 min
- P1 3:57STLBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
- P2 13:25STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:24MINZach Parise: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:31STLPatrik Berglund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Schwartz4:15
xG 0.11–0.05 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves6:00
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz8:01
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie7:32
xG 0.06–0.24 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Polak2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Polak9:47
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Jackman – Shattenkirk14:08
xG 0.26–0.50 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund12:13
xG 0.69–0.08 (90%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Koivu – Moulson – Coyle13:03
xG 0.38–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter10:15
xG 0.28–0.04 (89%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Heatley – McCormick – Haula4:14
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon20:31
xG 0.89–0.07 (93%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
- Scandella – Brodin16:30
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Stoner – Prosser8:09
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).