Mon, Mar 10, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 215 | 010 | 01 | 235 |
| COL | 011 | 212 | 09 | 12 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:38COLJohn MitchellAssists: Tyson Barrie, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 15:48WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Bryan Little, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.51 xG1–1
- P2 17:36WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Michael Frolik, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 19:48COLAndre BenoitAssists: John Mitchell · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 2:33COLMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Nick Holden, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:04WPGToby Enstrom: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:51WPGOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:27WPGZach Bogosian: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:01COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 14:12WPGJim Slater: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:25COLCory Sarich: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00WPGDevin Setoguchi: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:28WPGJacob Trouba: Elbowing2 min
- P3 5:06COLJohn Mitchell: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:06WPGEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:59WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Setoguchi – Kane12:36
xG 0.41–0.30 (57%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Ladd – Little – Frolik11:39
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Bogosian12:01
xG 0.75–0.52 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Pardy – Ellerby3:38
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba10:45
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Talbot – McLeod – Cliche7:14
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Talbot – Bordeleau – Cliche2:40
xG 0.01–0.13 (10%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McGinn – O'Reilly – Duchene11:01
xG 0.49–0.67 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Landeskog – MacKinnon10:21
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Barrie2:25
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Johnson12:49
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Benoit – Holden5:18
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).