Mon, Mar 10, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Islanders 7, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 07 | 715 | 728 |
| VAN | 111 | 28 | 15 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:46VANChris HigginsPPAssists: Yannick Weber, Jason Garrison · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 4:52VANHenrik SedinAssists: Nicklas Jensen, Tom Sestito · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 8:53VANRyan KeslerPPAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 1:13NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Matt Donovan · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 3:14NYIRyan StromePPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 3:36NYICalvin de HaanPPAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 6:22NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Anders Lee, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 9:54VANChris TanevAssists: Chris Higgins, Jannik Hansen · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 10:04NYIMatt MartinGWGAssists: Colin McDonald · Backhand, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 11:45NYIAnders LeeAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.12 xG6–4
- P3 19:42NYICal ClutterbuckENAssists: Josh Bailey, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.46 xG7–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:10NYILubomir Visnovsky: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 5:38VANTom Sestito: Kneeing2 min
- P1 13:56NYIMatt Donovan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:03VANYannick Weber: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:38NYICalvin de Haan: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:30NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26VANShawn Matthias: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:19VANNicklas Jensen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:41VANNicklas Jensen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:24VANKevin Bieksa: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 4:21VANTom Sestito: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:42VANRyan Kesler: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas2:40
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McDonald – Bailey – Nelson3:02
xG 0.12–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Lee – Strome5:17
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner4:33
xG 0.02–0.00 (90%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Donovan3:33
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey8:09
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Strait – Hickey2:34
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHiggins – Kesler – Hansen8:38
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Dalpe – Schroeder – Archibald2:51
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Burrows – Jensen8:53
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Booth – Sestito – Matthias7:06
xG 0.07–0.34 (16%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Tanev8:58
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Edler12:22
xG 0.67–0.47 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Garrison14:44
xG 0.06–0.46 (12%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).