Tue, Mar 11, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 25 | 112 | 424 |
| BUF | 17 | 011 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Cody Hodgson, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 17:10NSHNick SpalingPPAssists: Shea Weber, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 3:33NSHShea WeberGWGAssists: Colin Wilson, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 7:51NSHCraig SmithAssists: Colin Wilson, Gabriel Bourque · Slap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 18:29NSHPaul GaustadENAssists: Nick Spaling, Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:34NSHMatt Cullen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 4:38NSHMike Fisher: Holding2 min
- P1 15:40BUFCory Conacher: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20NSHPaul Gaustad: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:20NSHPaul Gaustad: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:20BUFZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:20NSHPaul Gaustad: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:24NSHRich Clune: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Wilson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Bourque – Sissons7:09
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Wilson – Smith8:10
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Fisher – Stalberg – Spaling3:17
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Spaling6:13
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Ellis14:51
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi19:20
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Jones14:47
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Leino – Deslauriers – Flynn10:24
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott3:23
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Foligno12:37
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Conacher15:08
xG 0.26–0.68 (28%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Weber – Myers16:23
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – Ruhwedel15:15
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Tallinder – McBain15:30
xG 0.26–0.63 (29%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).