Wed, Mar 12, 2014·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 014 | 110 | 15 | 04 | 1 | 333 |
| WPG | 09 | 17 | 116 | 02 | 0 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:48WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Bryan Little, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:38VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Jason Garrison, Jordan Schroeder · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 2:18WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Olli Jokinen, Keaton Ellerby · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 11:17VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Jannik Hansen · Slap, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WPG Devin Setoguchi stopped
- 2. VAN Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 3. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 4. VAN Nicklas Jensen stopped
- 5. WPG Olli Jokinen stopped
- 6. VAN Chris Higgins scored
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:25WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:25VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:01VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
- P1 6:54WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:31WPGEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:33WPGOlli Jokinen: Holding2 min
- P1 18:27VANJordan Schroeder: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:54WPGBryan Little: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:54VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:01VANChris Tanev: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:29VANNicklas Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:29WPGAndrew Ladd: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:20WPGJim Slater: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:58VANAlexander Edler: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Matthias – Archibald5:33
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Higgins – Kesler – Hansen4:40
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Sedin – Burrows – Jensen12:01
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Booth – Schroeder – Archibald3:22
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGarrison – Stanton7:14
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Bieksa – Edler14:51
xG 0.57–0.77 (42%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Tanev13:05
xG 0.13–0.61 (17%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik11:33
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Setoguchi – Kane9:27
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba6:59
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Pardy – Ellerby9:47
xG 0.20–0.25 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Bogosian8:15
xG 0.12–0.36 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).