Wed, Mar 12, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 2, Calgary Flames 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 18 | 17 | 222 |
| CGY | 48 | 210 | 17 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39CGYMark GiordanoAssists: TJ Brodie · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 7:10CGYTJ GaliardiSHAssists: Paul Byron, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 11:28CGYMichael CammalleriPPGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P1 13:28CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Lance Bouma, Joni Ortio · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P2 1:31CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 11:30ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Francois Beauchemin · Snap, 0.21 xG1–5
- P2 18:49CGYLadislav SmidAssists: Paul Byron, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 7:45ANANick BoninoAssists: Cam Fowler, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 18:03CGYCorban KnightAssists: Kevin Westgarth, Ben Hanowski · Slap, 0.07 xG2–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:56CGYKevin Westgarth: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:51ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:22CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:22ANABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:50CGYChris Butler: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:37ANAKyle Palmieri: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:01ANAMark Fistric: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 10:01ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:00
xG 0.61–0.15 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Jackman – Winnik – Bonino2:58
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Selanne – Getzlaf – Perry2:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon9:21
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm13:39
xG 0.77–0.46 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Sbisa – Lindholm2:07
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Allen – Fistric12:36
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestByron – Backlund – Bouma11:35
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Westgarth – Hanowski – Knight8:08
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Glencross – Galiardi9:12
xG 0.06–0.24 (21%)attempts 1–13goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Colborne – Monahan12:57
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie13:46
xG 0.71–0.18 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Smid – Butler2:49
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Smid – Wotherspoon11:40
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).