Thu, Mar 13, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 04 | 17 | 223 |
| CAR | 113 | 022 | 320 | 455 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:22BUFTyler EnnisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 13:20CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Ryan Murphy, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 8:43BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Cory Conacher, Mike Weber · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 11:48CARAlexander SeminPPAssists: Andrej Sekera, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 13:43CARJiri TlustyGWGAssists: Alexander Semin, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 19:59CARNathan GerbeENAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:48CARAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:22CARJiri Tlusty: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:42BUFCory Conacher: Holding2 min
- P2 3:11BUFCory Conacher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:42BUFHenrik Tallinder: Holding2 min
- P2 19:39BUFTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:56BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:25CARJeff Skinner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLeino – Deslauriers – Flynn4:34
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Stafford – Ennis – Conacher7:54
xG 0.12–0.33 (27%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ellis – Deslauriers – Flynn3:14
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Foligno8:14
xG 0.18–0.58 (24%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEhrhoff – Myers11:08
xG 0.71–0.44 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Tallinder – Weber13:44
xG 0.26–0.71 (27%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDwyer – Gerbe – Nash10:19
xG 0.80–0.05 (94%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Semin – Tlusty – Staal10:06
xG 0.88–0.20 (82%)attempts 22–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm11:52
xG 0.89–0.61 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Bowman – Loktionov3:28
xG 0.17–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bellemore16:06
xG 1.55–0.25 (86%)attempts 30–11goals 1–0
- Sekera – Murphy13:10
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Komisarek – Harrison8:04
xG 0.57–0.54 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).