Thu, Mar 13, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Florida Panthers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 211 | 05 | 211 | 427 |
| TBL | 27 | 213 | 18 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44FLATomas FleischmannPPAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 5:38TBLSami SaloAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 5:50FLAQuinton HowdenAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Brandon Pirri · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 8:18TBLMichael KostkaAssists: Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 12:04TBLRyan CallahanAssists: Ondrej Palat, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 18:53TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 10:47TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 18:55FLAScottie UpshallAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 19:33FLABrandon PirriAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:14TBLTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:43TBLRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P2 5:07FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:41FLAQuinton Howden: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:52FLADylan Olsen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:26FLAAlexander Petrovic: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Pirri – Howden8:51
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Gomez – Barch – Crabb4:25
xG 0.08–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Trocheck – Huberdeau9:12
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Boyes – Upshall – Bjugstad11:29
xG 0.30–0.68 (31%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Olsen2:01
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Olsen – Petrovic11:04
xG 0.18–0.18 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Campbell – Petrovic2:20
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Callahan – Palat11:25
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Johnson12:00
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Purcell – Panik7:35
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Thompson – Kucherov – Brown7:54
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 5–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Kostka12:16
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Salo – Hedman13:29
xG 0.35–0.34 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Carle – Gudas17:12
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).