Fri, Mar 14, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 4, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 110 | 29 | 01 | 2 | 430 |
| DAL | 09 | 38 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:13DALAntoine RousselAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Ryan Garbutt · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 6:20CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: Joe Colborne, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 14:16DALJamie BennAssists: Trevor Daley, Tyler Seguin · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 16:29DALErik ColeAssists: Brenden Dillon, Travis Morin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 12:51CGYPaul ByronPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 15:30CGYMichael CammalleriAssists: TJ Brodie, Joe Colborne · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 2. CGY Joe Colborne stopped
- 3. DAL Colton Sceviour stopped
- 4. CGY Michael Cammalleri stopped
- 5. DAL Jordie Benn scored
- 6. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 7. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 8. CGY Corban Knight scored
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:25CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P2 9:25DALRyan Garbutt: Diving2 min
- P3 11:15DALKevin Connauton: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galiardi won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestWestgarth – Hanowski – Knight5:57
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Glencross – Galiardi – Byron2:27
xG 0.33–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Colborne5:53
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Colborne – Monahan10:10
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie18:37
xG 1.32–0.55 (71%)attempts 33–10goals 2–0
- Russell – Butler13:37
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- Smid – Brodie2:18
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin12:01
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Whitney – Mueller – Chiasson3:38
xG 0.19–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fiddler – Roussel – Chiasson3:53
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Morin – Sceviour13:14
xG 0.36–0.45 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Goligoski16:43
xG 0.82–0.79 (51%)attempts 17–20goals 1–2
- Gonchar – Connauton16:15
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon18:27
xG 0.44–1.11 (29%)attempts 10–22goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).