Sat, Mar 15, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 010 | 110 | 134 |
| NYI | 210 | 014 | 214 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31NYIFrans NielsenAssists: Anders Lee, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:24NYIKyle OkposoPPGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Lubomir Visnovsky · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 0:56BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Christian Ehrhoff · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 1:35NYIRyan StromeAssists: Matt Martin, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–3
- P3 17:47NYICal ClutterbuckENAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Thomas Hickey · Backhand, 0.60 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:35NYIMatt Carkner: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:15NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:15BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:25NYIThomas Hickey: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:13BUFHenrik Tallinder: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:54NYICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:27BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 19:08NYIColin McDonald: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:08NYIMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:08BUFHenrik Tallinder: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:05NYICalvin de Haan: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:56NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:16BUFJohn Scott: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Konopka – Ellis – Scott5:09
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Leino – Deslauriers6:30
xG 0.42–0.60 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Conacher10:51
xG 0.38–0.61 (38%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Hodgson – Foligno – Flynn9:50
xG 0.30–1.52 (17%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Ruhwedel11:31
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Ristolainen2:20
xG 0.34–0.52 (39%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Ehrhoff – McBain3:30
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Strome8:55
xG 1.26–0.70 (64%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Nelson9:40
xG 0.66–0.13 (83%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Sundstrom – Halmo7:09
xG 0.42–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Lee10:42
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey12:45
xG 2.41–0.52 (82%)attempts 27–13goals 2–0
- Hamonic – de Haan13:26
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Strait – Hickey2:54
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).