Sun, Mar 16, 2014·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 1, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 17 | 08 | 120 |
| CHI | 011 | 214 | 25 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:44CHINick LeddyPPAssists: Marian Hossa, Ben Smith · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 15:10DETGustav NyquistPPAssists: Daniel Alfredsson, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 19:46CHIBen SmithGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 6:33CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 17:50CHIJonathan ToewsSHAssists: Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:32CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:39DETRiley Sheahan: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:23DETTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 7:02DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:22CHIBryan Bickell: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:13CHIAndrew Shaw: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:13DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
- P3 16:36CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Miller – Glendening4:09
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Franzen – Nyquist – Sheahan2:42
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Legwand – Franzen3:18
xG 0.28–0.15 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tootoo – Emmerton – Pulkkinen3:27
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Lashoff9:25
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Smith – DeKeyser3:25
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser11:46
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Kane – Smith8:27
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hossa – Versteeg – Toews9:36
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Handzus – Kruger – Bollig4:38
xG 0.08–0.05 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Handzus – Sharp – Shaw2:30
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook13:32
xG 0.86–0.55 (61%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Rozsival – Leddy12:48
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:34
xG 0.52–0.60 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).